iPads and Windows 8 will drive tablet sales to double by 2016, says IDC

Tablet demand isn’t showing any signs of slowing down, with market researcher IDC today upwards revising its forecast for 107.4 million tablets to be sold in 2012, before more than doubling to 222.1 million units by 2016.

The research firm announced its findings in its latest Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker, and believes that future tablet sales will be driven by Windows 8, as well as demand in the commercial space.

"Demand for media tablets remains robust, and we see an increasing interest in the category from the commercial side," said Tom Mainelli, research director of mobile connected devices at IDC. "We expect pending new products from major players, increasingly affordable mainstream devices, and a huge marketing blitz from Microsoft around Windows 8 to drive increased consumer interest in the category through the end of the year."

IDC believes that Apple’s iOS will continue to dominate over Android, and claims that iOS market share will increase from 58.2% in 2011 to 62.5% in 2012, with Android falling from 38.7% to 36.5% over the same time-frame. RIM’s Blackberry sits in a distant third place, and is forecast to drop from 1.7% to 1%.

“After a very strong launch of new products in March, Apple's iPad shows few signs of slowing down," added Mainelli. "The addition of the Retina Display and 4G capabilities to the third-generation products clearly enticed many current owners to upgrade. And Apple's decision to keep two iPad 2s in the market at lower prices--moving the entry-level price down to $399--seems to be paying off as well.

"If Apple launches a sub-$300, 7-inch product into the market later this year as rumored, we expect the company's grip on this market to become even stronger."

IDC does not include Windows 8 or Windows RT tablets in its Media Tablet Tracker forecasting service, as they appear in the PC forecast, but the firm does plan to revise the way it tracks tablet sales in the next quarter. The group expects Windows 8 tablets to boost the overall tablet market, but not necessarily take share away from Apple or Android.

As a side note, the research group also interestingly stated that low-cost tablets are having a negative impact on eReaders, with the firm now having ‘significantly’ reduced its forecast for the form-factor for 28 million units to be shipped this year. Approximately 28.2 million eReaders were shipped in 2011, according to IDC.

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The specifications mean the Surface tablets have bigger screens than the iPad but are heavier.

Pen input

A variety of accompanying covers can be attached using built-in magnets. They double as keyboards with trackpads. One version is flat while the other offers keys that can be depressed.

The devices are also designed to work with a pen accessory using what the firm dubbed "digital ink". When the stylus is held close to the screen of the tablet it ignores touch-input from the users' hands and "samples" the ink at 600dpi (dots per inch).

The ARM-based version will be available with either 32GB (gigabytes) or 64GB of storage. Microsoft said they would be priced at a similar rate to other tablets using the same type of processor built by other firms.

It added that the Intel-based versions would be offered with either 64GB or 128GB of storage and would have price tags comparable to ultrabook laptops.

Different chipsets

One tech analyst told the BBC that other hardware makers were likely to feel aggrieved by the news.

"Microsoft can offer a competitive price for these specifications as it doesn't need to pay itself a licence for the Windows 8 software which other manufacturers will have to do, and that might make its PC and tablet-making partners unhappy," said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at the technology consultants Gartner.

She added that the firm appeared to have focused on a specific part of the market which wanted a more powerful device than the iPad.

"They seem to be be targeting a professional audience," she said.

"So they are going head-to-head with Apple within the corporate sector. Price will be key - these devices won't be at the bottom end of the market. They will probably let other manufacturers fight over that space."

By contrast the tech research firm Forrester said it thought the focus for ARM-based Surface tablets would be consumers, rather than the enterprise sector.

But one of its analysts warned there was a risk customers would shy away if they found it confusing distinguishing between the two types of Windows 8 experience. This will be the first time Microsoft will offer a version of its PC system designed for chips based on ARM's architecture.

"Microsoft will be its own worst enemy in this market,"blogged Sarah Rotman Epps.

"Consumers aren't used to thinking about chipsets. Choice is a key tenet of Windows, but too much choice is overwhelming for consumers. Apple gets this, and limits iPad options to connectivity, storage, and black… or white."

ARM's ambitions

Despite the potential for confusion, British chip designer ARM said it was "excited" by the news.

The firm's designs have already proved popular with smartphone makers, but Microsoft's support for its technology in Windows 8 offers it the potential to expand into a market dominated until now by Intel and AMD.

"This represents a significant milestone in Microsoft's journey to expand the support of the Windows operating system and embrace the ARM architecture," said Lance Howarth, the firm's vice president of marketing.

"With the Surface for Windows RT announcement we are delighted to see yet another example of this partnership in action which follows on from various Windows RT devices demonstrated at Taiwan's Computex show recently."

Intel said it was also "pleased" about Microsoft's move.

"Intel believes in and supports an open and healthy ecosystem that delivers a broad scale of innovation and choice in solutions and user experiences," a statement said.

"We also believe Windows 8 on Intel architecture will deliver the most complete experience with the best performance and compatibility across all computing platforms."